start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0098

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0510

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0387

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0140

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

    0.0096

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.4319

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0570

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0308

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0015

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0087

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0329

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

   -0.0288

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0176

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0073

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0035

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2294

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2280

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2288

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2284

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0065

change in G

ans =

   -0.0457

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0014

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -6.1056e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -9.7726e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [-15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 … ]
              YData: [0.2750 0.5500 0.8250 1.1000 1.3750 1.6500 1.9250 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4912 2.1112 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.6234 -1.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0051

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0086

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0044

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

    0.0025

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0252

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0022

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0085

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0230

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0087

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0317

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

   -0.0239

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0156

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0266

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0084

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0033

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0095

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2296

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2288

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2288

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2292

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0056

change in G

ans =

   -0.0382

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

  -7.8269e-04

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -8.0388e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -3.4908e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0

+++++++++++++++++++multiplier++++++++++++++++

multiplier =

  Columns 1 through 7

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0

  Columns 8 through 14

         0    1.7155    2.0889    2.4111    2.7268    2.9093    3.0227

  Columns 15 through 21

    3.0945    3.1385    3.1618    3.1683    2.9179    2.5268    2.3234

  Columns 22 through 28

    2.2844    2.3271    2.4174    2.5426    2.6916    2.8022    2.8718

  Columns 29 through 35

    2.9125    2.9307    2.9301    2.9111    2.8475    2.8049    2.7440

  Columns 36 through 40

    2.6627    2.5578    2.4250    2.2581    2.0492


multiplier1 =

  Columns 1 through 7

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0

  Columns 8 through 14

         0    3.5675    3.6477    3.7258    3.8027    3.8485    3.8791

  Columns 15 through 21

    3.9010    3.9177    3.9308    3.9416    3.9280    3.8841    3.8278

  Columns 22 through 28

    3.7686    3.7127    3.6709    3.6543    3.6666    3.6818    3.6928

  Columns 29 through 35

    3.7005    3.7053    3.7077    3.7073    3.6925    3.6893    3.6844

  Columns 36 through 40

    3.6778    3.6699    3.6607    3.6505    3.6396


multiplier_RE =

  Columns 1 through 12

     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 13 through 24

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 25 through 36

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 37 through 40

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN


multiplier_RE1 =

  Columns 1 through 7

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0

  Columns 8 through 14

         0    3.1174    3.1264    3.1354    3.1445    3.1537    3.1629

  Columns 15 through 21

    3.1721    3.1814    3.1907    3.2000    3.2095    3.2189    3.2284

  Columns 22 through 28

    3.2379    3.2475    3.2571    3.2668    3.2765    3.2862    3.2960

  Columns 29 through 35

    3.3058    3.3157    3.3256    3.3356    3.3455    3.3556    3.3656

  Columns 36 through 40

    3.3758    3.3859    3.3961    3.4063    3.4166


years =

  Columns 1 through 6

        2008        2009        2010        2011        2012        2013

  Columns 7 through 10

        2014        2015        2016        2017


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [-0.9007 -4.9788 -4.1801 -7.1070 -12.2352 -14.4654]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0249 -0.0498 -0.0745 -0.0992 -0.4730 -0.9701 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


y_with =

  Columns 1 through 7

   -0.0252   -0.0741   -0.1423   -0.2254   -0.6728   -1.5851   -2.8925

  Columns 8 through 14

   -4.6113   -6.1936   -7.4352   -8.2362   -8.5919   -8.6417   -8.4864

  Columns 15 through 21

   -8.1599   -7.6956   -7.1254   -6.4793   -5.9470   -5.7117   -5.7022

  Columns 22 through 28

   -5.7819   -5.8583   -5.7756   -5.3078   -4.3030   -3.0627   -1.8958

  Columns 29 through 35

   -0.8726    0.0019    0.7270    1.3000    1.5983    1.8502    2.0764

  Columns 36 through 40

    2.1941    2.2160    2.1552    2.0251    1.8387


ylhand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3312e+05 -7.5000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ylhand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand', ylhand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand'), end">all properties</a>

average output loss over three years

ans =

   -0.3070

cumulative output loss over six years

ans =

   -5.0687


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0339 -0.0676 -0.1010 -0.1342 -0.6420 -1.3157 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0339 -0.0676 -0.1010 -0.1342 -0.6420 -1.3157 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0180 -0.0360 -0.0540 -0.0721 -0.3420 -0.7023 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0180 -0.0360 -0.0540 -0.0721 -0.3420 -0.7023 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0096 -0.0190 -0.0283 -0.0374 -0.1809 -0.3698 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h5 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-0.0096 -0.0190 -0.0283 -0.0374 -0.1809 -0.3698 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h5', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5', h5, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-4.7273e-04 -9.2700e-04 -0.0014 -0.0018 -0.0088 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [-4.7273e-04 -9.2700e-04 -0.0014 -0.0018 -0.0088 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>

g_with1

g_with1 =

  Columns 1 through 7

   -0.0005   -0.0014   -0.0026   -0.0041   -0.0125   -0.0293   -0.0552

  Columns 8 through 14

   -0.1471   -0.2321   -0.2301   -0.1954   -0.1383   -0.1351   -0.1281

  Columns 15 through 21

   -0.1181   -0.1058   -0.0919   -0.0771   -0.1610   -0.3025   -0.3929

  Columns 22 through 28

   -0.4513   -0.4804   -0.4305   -0.2696   -0.0338    0.0429    0.0640

  Columns 29 through 35

    0.0818    0.0962    0.1073    0.1118    0.0357    0.1210    0.1220

  Columns 36 through 40

    0.1210    0.1181    0.1138    0.1083    0.1019


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [0.0241 0.0472 0.0694 0.0907 0.4482 0.9118 1.3569 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [0.0241 0.0472 0.0694 0.0907 0.4482 0.9118 1.3569 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734047 734412 734777 735143 735508 735873 736238 … ]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [1.1000 1.1000 1.1000 1.1000 1.1000 1.1000 1.1000 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp', hp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp'), end">all properties</a>


hpp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [0 0.0159 0.0487 0.0972 0.1596 0.5058 1.2447 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp', hpp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp'), end">all properties</a>


y2hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3293e+05 9.5367e-06 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y2hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand', y2hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand'), end">all properties</a>


hpp1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733408 733499 733590 733682 733774 733864 733955 … ]
              YData: [0 -0.0073 -0.0224 -0.0447 -0.0734 -0.2327 -0.5725 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1', hpp1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1'), end">all properties</a>


y3hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3306e+05 3.8147e-06 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y3hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand', y3hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [-15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 … ]
              YData: [0.2750 0.5500 0.8250 1.1000 1.3750 1.6500 1.9250 … ]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4912 2.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 11
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.6234 -1.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0051

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0086

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0044

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

    0.0025

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0102

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.1969    0.1913         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.3907    0.3740         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   1.0e-03 *

   -0.2000    0.5815    0.5485         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0030    0.0008    0.0007         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0037    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0076    0.0072         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0114    0.0107         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0152    0.0141         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0149    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0147    0.0128         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0145    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0142    0.0116         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0140    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0138    0.0104         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0136    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0134    0.0094         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0132    0.0088         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0130    0.0083         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0128    0.0078         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0126    0.0074         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0124    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0122    0.0064         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0120    0.0060         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0118    0.0056         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0116    0.0052         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0114    0.0048         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0112    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0111    0.0040         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0109    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0107    0.0033         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0105    0.0029         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0104    0.0026         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0102    0.0022         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0101    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0099    0.0016         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0097    0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0096    0.0010         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0094    0.0008         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0093    0.0005         0

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start

xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2254
    0.0078


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0276
    0.9839


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.3525
   -0.0121


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9842
    0.0002

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0110

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0293

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0286

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0104

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0839

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0134

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0148

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0542

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0452

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0163

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

    0.0025

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.4203

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0466

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0107

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0302

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0344

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0120

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0026

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.2068

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0210

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0098

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0510

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0387

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0140

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

    0.0096

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.4319

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0570

main_calibration_km_fiscal
start
change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0098

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0510

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0387

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0140

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

    0.0096

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.4319

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0570

main_calibration_km_fiscal
